Poll: Los Angeles mayor behind general election opponent

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(The Center Square) – A new poll from the University of California, Berkeley's Institute for Government Studies says Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass has fallen behind her general election opponent, City Councilmember Nithya Raman, by 11 percentage points.

The UC Berkeley survey, which was co-sponsored by the Los Angeles Times, shows 39% of respondents supported Raman in the Los Angeles mayor’s race. Of those polled, 28% supported Bass. Approximately 33% were undecided.

The poll also looked into Bass’ favorability ratings, which were low. The mayor had a 63% unfavorable rating compared to 40% for Raman. The poll surveyed 2,150 likely voters online between Sept. 15 and 20, and it had a 3 percentage point margin of error.

Information about the poll was in an article published by by the Times early Wednesday. It included charts related to the poll, which as of Wednesday afternoon, had not appeared on the Institute for Government Studies' website.

The survey was found to be creditable by a think tank contacted by The Center Square.

“I think they have developed themselves to be one of the go-to, reputable public pollsters in California,” said Tim Anaya, vice president of marketing and communications for the Pasadena, Calif.-based Pacific Research Institute.

“The people who worked on this particular poll - they come out of the old Field Poll, which was the gold standard of public polling in California for decades, so I would take the polling results to heart," Anaya told The Center Square on Wednesday.

Anaya said Bass might have fallen behind in the race because of her handling of the devastating 2025 Palisades Fire and the struggle for many Los Angeles families to rebuild their homes. 

Homelessness growing worse in the city is also likely something voters are thinking about, Anaya added.

“When you look on homelessness, we’re spending billions of dollars on homeless programs in L.A., and it doesn’t seem to get any better,” Anaya said. “When you’re seeing this and living it every day, the natural thing when the next election comes around is to say, ‘Hey, maybe we need to have a change of direction in the leader of our city. So that’s what I think is the main takeaway here in why she’s been so unpopular.”

Raman is doing better than Bass, Anaya said, simply because Bass is doing worse, not necessarily because of anything Raman herself has done better.

“Really, it’s just all about if Candidate A, being Mayor Bass, the voters decide they’re ready for a change, you only have one alternative, and that’s [Raman],” Anaya said. “I think whoever would have been in the runoff against Karen Bass would have been in a strong position here.”

Raman was endorsed by the Democratic Socialists of America in recent weeks, according to the organization's website. Despite the success of Democratic Socialist candidates in mayoral races in Seattle and New York City, Anaya said he perceives Raman’s rise as “uniquely L.A.”

“But there certainly is a growing energy behind so-called Democratic Socialists on the city level in L.A.,” Anaya said.

Many voters who were pushing for unsuccessful Republican candidate Spencer Pratt’s bid for mayor, Anaya said, are moving into Bass’s camp – but not all, he said.

“When you look at the Pratt voters, right now, they are leaning towards Bass, but there’s a huge percentage of them – over 60% – that are undecided,” Anaya said. “[Pratt] is very critical of both of them. I’d be hard-pressed to see that he would be for one or the other before the election, so I think they’re in for a tough choice. It’s the proverbial choice for these voters between cancer and heart disease, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see a lot of them sit out the general election.”

It also depends on if Pratt ultimately supports Bass or Raman, Anaya said.

“I think it’s unlikely that he does, but if he does, that could be a major moment in deciding who is the next mayor of L.A.,” Anaya said.

Mark DiCamillo, director for the UC Berkeley's Institute for Governmental Studies, did not respond to The Center Square's request for comment on Wednesday. Raman and her campaign representatives also did not respond.

The Center Square reached out to Bass’s reelection campaign for comment on Wednesday. No one was made available to answer questions, but a press release was forwarded via email in which the latest survey was called an “outlier poll” that didn’t accurately reflect the political inclinations of many voters in Los Angeles.

“One outlier poll which got the June primary wrong isn’t reflective of the energy we see when talking to voters every day and what every other poll indicates – this is going to be a close race,” campaign spokesperson Alex Stack said in the press release. “Our campaign is continuing to do our job: contrasting Mayor Bass’ record of delivering results on housing, public safety, and neighborhood investment with Nithya Raman’s out-of-step views on allowing encampments near schools and failing to show up for her constituents.”