Poll: Florida Republicans lead in key statewide races

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Republicans lead by roughly 10 percentage points in several key Florida statewide races, while a property tax relief amendment has support above the threshold needed for passage, according to a new poll from The James Madison Institute.

The poll shows Republicans leading in the races for governor, U.S. Senate, attorney general and commissioner of agriculture.

Targoz Market Research conducted the survey Sept. 28-Oct. 4 among 1,200 registered Florida voters, including 857 classified as likely voters. The report lists a margin of error of plus or minus 2.77 percentage points for the full registered-voter sample. It does not list a separate margin for likely voters.

Among likely voters, Byron Donalds polled at 52% versus David Jolly at 42%. In the U.S. Senate race, Ashley Moody polled at 52% compared with Angie Nixon’s 42%.

Attorney General James Uthmeier leads Jose Javier Rodriguez 50% to 40%. The contest for commissioner of agriculture shows Republican Wilton Simpson holding the largest lead at 50% versus Joey Mendoza Atkins at 39%.

The tightest race is for chief financial officer. Blaise Ingoglia, who currently holds the position, polled at 43%, the same as his Democratic challenger, Annette Taddeo.

Affordability is a top priority among likely voters, the poll shows.

When asked to identify up to three of the most important issues going into Election Day, health care ranked first among likely voters at 37%, followed by fuel prices at 33%. Housing affordability and taxes and government spending tied at 30%.

Among all registered voters surveyed, 80% said recent fuel price changes have changed their regular household spending habits, and 39% said their household’s financial situation is worse than it was a year ago.

Amendment 3 is the only constitutional amendment that polled above the 60% threshold needed to pass. Sixty-three percent of likely voters said they would vote yes on the property tax relief measure, compared with 59% of all registered voters surveyed.

Property tax levy caps also received majority support. Among all registered voters surveyed, 35% said they were familiar with the concept. After receiving a brief explanation, 78% said they would support requiring voter approval before a local government could increase total property tax revenue by more than a specified annual limit.

Neither Amendment 1 nor Amendment 2 polled above the passage threshold among likely voters. Amendment 1, which would increase the amount of money the state could keep in the budget stabilization fund, received 42% support. Amendment 2, which would exempt certain agricultural tangible personal property from property taxes, had 57% support.

“From choosing the state’s next leaders to weighing changes to Florida’s Constitution, Florida voters are heading into an important election with consequential decisions before them,” said Robert McClure, president and CEO of The James Madison Institute. “The latest JMI Poll provides a clear snapshot of where voters stand as Election Day approaches. Affordability remains top of mind and voters are expressing strong views on property taxes, education, and important technology issues.”

A majority of registered voters surveyed, 54%, said lawmakers should continue providing the same base amount of state funding for each regular K-12 student, whether the student attends a traditional public school, charter school or private school, or learns from multiple providers.